|
Division of Labour: December 2005 Archives
December 31, 2005
2005 Running Year in Review
Total Miles: 1,513 Yellow = individual runs
Mario Draghi named new Governor of the Bank of Italy
Italy’s prime minister has named Draghi to replace Antonio Fazio, who resigned his lifetime appointment under criminal investigation for bank merger favoritism. The law was changed last week; the new Governor will serve a renewable six-year term. On the plus side: as an Italian banking regulator, Draghi is committed to opening the market to inter-European competition. Mr Draghi spent 10 years from 1991 as director-general of the Italian treasury, where he piloted Europe's biggest privatisation programme. On the minus side: as a voting member of the European Central Bank monetary policy committee, he’s not an inflation hawk. The new Bank of Italy governor will also replace Fazio as a member of the European Central Bank's governing council and have a say in setting interest rate policy in the 12 euro nations. Fazio was considered a hawk on rates, willing to quickly raise lending costs to fight inflation, said Lorenzo Codogno, co-head of European economics at Bank of America in London. Germany’s recently named candidate to replace the outgoing ECB council member Otmar Issing, Bundesbank Vice-President Juergen Stark, by contrast, has solid inflation-hawk credentials. Ripe for an event study: did the Draghi appointment raise the prices of Italian bank shares? Did it depress the value of the euro?
New Year's Celebration c. 1905
New Year's Eve 1905 was, evidently, one of the first to be celebrated in and around Times Square. From the Dec. 31, 1905 NYT: On the stroke of 12 to-night the figures "1906" will be flashed from the tower of the Times Building in letters of fire that will be visible several miles away...Election night, with its vast and merry crowds, showed conclusively that the center of up-town activity had moved north to Times Square, and there is no doubt, therefore, that the biggest outpouring in the city's history will see the birth of the new year from the streets and avenues immediately surrounding the Times Building.The last bit sounds like a Dick Clark sound bite. In another article we learn that they could party hard in 1905: The customary New Year's Eve celebration, for which practically all of New York turns out, was pushed more than a day ahead this season, and began practically soon after noon yesterday, when the offices downtown closed for the last time in the old year...The old custom of giving away New Year's wishes in quart bottles was revived with a vengeance. Some years ago the Retail Liquor Dealer's Association, by resolution, put a stop to this form of gifts to patrons, but the saloon keepers objected, insisting that they lost business by adhering to the rule. This year there was no attempt to restrict the gifts.
Presidential pursuits c. 1905
This being the last day of 2005, I would be remiss if I didn't convey some of the information in the Dec. 31, 1905 NYT. My habit of reading the paper from 100 years ago has provided me with a much greater history lesson than I initially anticipated - I haven't been told to stop, so I will continue to post interesting tidbits in 2006. Today's (2005) FW Start-Telegarm had an article about Pres. Bush's brush-clearing at his ranch down the road in Crawford. And the J-walk blog seems to poke fun at the president's habit of taking a machete to ever-encroaching nature. However, things could be considerably worse. From the Dec. 31, 1905 NYT is an article about President T. Roosevelt's pursuits: The President enjoyed a fine hunt this morning at Pine Know...His bag as (sic) the close of the expedition was one wild turkey, half a dozen quail, two rabbits, and some snow birds. Surgeon General Rixey, Kermit, and Archie when in a direction different from that taken by the President and were not nearly so successful. How more sensitive, both politically and culturally, we are today. It isn't too hard to imagine the outrage if Pres. Bush shot a deer or a wild turkey on his property.
News flash: Dick Clark has finally gotten old
The once-ageless Clark, now 76, had a stroke last year, but he’s back – at least to some extent. He’ll be co-hosting “New Year's Rockin' Eve” tonight with Ryan Seacrest. Reports the NY Times: "I don't think he is 100 percent," Mr. Seacrest told Associated Press radio this week, "but he will not be in a wheelchair on the telecast." Well, that’s reassuring.
December 29, 2005
Stock market advice c. 1905
In the Dec. 29, 1905 NYT is a discussion about the apparent disparity in money market conditions between New York City and London. In the process, the author offers this sage advice: When the hooligans of the stock market make a football of security prices there is no especial occasion for excitement. Nobody has to venture in the stock market, and nobody who chooses to venture has any right to complain if his most valuable gain is in experience. There are even cases - as in the painful markets of 1903 - when the movement of the stock market as a whole fails to reflect values, and misleads those who are solicitous regarding values while indifferent regarding prices. That is better than anything I hear on the talking-head shows.
December 28, 2005
Noise pollution c. 1905
From the Dec. 28, 1905 NYT is a story about Francis Hamilton, then solicitor to the Collector of the Port (of New York), who intended to prosecute boat captains for "unnecessary" whistle blowing. The statute enforced was U.S. Revised Statutes section 4.450 which provided for punishment of steamboat Captains for "misbehavior, negligence, or unskillfulness." The basic idea was that the noise associated with the shipping traffic along the waterfronts of NYC was too great and was causing heath problems and even death amongst the citizens of NYC. Similar to today's "new study," the whistles-cause-death hypothesis had support: From a health viewpoint, Dr. John H. Girdner, who has made a special study of the effects of noises on the brain and the general condition of the human anatomy, testified that he believed that death has frequently resulted from the terrific wear and tear on the brain and the nerves by noises [emphasis added].I'll grant that loud, sudden noises are not the best things for hospital patients, but manhole covers cause death? It seems that the noise-causes-death hypothesis rests on unsustained "studies," but was there a more practical reason for cutting down the amount of whistle blowing? "Has the increase in the night noises from the river front hurt property on the upper west side?" he [George Carrol, a real estate man] was asked by Mr. Hamilton.This makes sense - a compensating differential must be paid to the tenant for bearing the costs of noise, much like property values are lower near airports. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm sure that the noise of the big city is annoying, but this is why I don't live in a big city. I would have thought there are a number of different compensating differentials that accompany living with noise, beyond the obvious issue of lower rent. Are there higher wages, more "culture," and other quality of life issues such as the ability to get Chinese takeout at 4am? Nevertheless, the concern about noise affecting quality of life and health has not completely disappeared. The EU has introduced noise abatement regulations for member-country cities, with fines on the way, especially for those pesky bagpipes. The last Wednesday in April is International Noise Awareness Day, although this seems focused on hearing loss/damage rather than death. While there are plenty of ways to reduce noise and maintain economic activity, I wonder if the anti-noise activists understand this? What grabbed me when reading the 1905 story was how, in many cases, the activists of the twenty-first century are not as sophisticated/progressive/avante garde as they first appear.
Motorcycle airbag?
A picture of the new Honda Gold Wing - beyond the airbag, the bike has foot warmers, nav system, and an 80 watt sound system. Given some of the video clips of motorcylce wrecks rolling around the net, it is not clear that the airbag will help much. If it wasn't Honda, I would have thought it a joke.
The next Y2k+ bug
Coming back from an enjoyable week unplugged has one downside - having to wade through an overflowing email box. This little nugget was sent my way - which might make it old news/new news to some. The next big concern amongst the computer jocks is the Y2k+38 bug (that's 2038) where C+ programs will possibly crash. This is just a bit earlier than the Y2k bug was advertised, which makes me suspect. The Y2k bug was either a grand example of markets correcting a potential calamity before it happened or a grand example of over-hype. I tend to go with the latter, but I am willing to be persuaded.
December 27, 2005
Illarionov quits as Putin's advisor
From the WaPo: One of Vladimir Putin's senior aides said Tuesday he has tendered his resignation as presidential economic adviser, days after he charged in a news conference that Russia "is no longer a democratic country." From the FT: Andrei Illarionov, President Vladimir Putin’s chief economic adviser but also an acerbic critic of the Kremlin’s grab for economic power, offered his resignation on Tuesday, saying Russia was “no longer free”.
One step closer to the coinless economy
As of last week, reports the San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco's 23,000 parking meters began accepting prepaid cards this week as part of a pilot program that allows drivers to replace the process of depositing coins with the quick swipe of plastic. […] Small detail: Translink cards are not debit cards in the usual sense, i.e. they don’t draw funds from an ordinary bank account. (Although I suppose it's a matter of degree: you could argue that your Translink card balance, which is centrally tracked and cleared, is tantamount to a special-purpose bank account balance, with the Translink consortium playing the role of the issuing bank.) They are better described as prepaid cards. The coolest feature of Translink cards is that they allow “contactless” interface: you can pay by waving the card past a sensor rather than swiping or dipping it. Technical details for payment technology geeks here.
Favorite Christmas Songs
I am a pretty big fan of Christmas songs. A search for Christmas in my music library brings up 249 songs, so I have a fairly large collection. Here are five of my favorite Christmas songs. Some are fairly well known, some are not. 1. "Little Drummer Boy/Peace on Earth" - Bing Crosby and David Bowie. Recommendations desired, especially lesser-known songs by well-known artists. Comments are open. Posted by Joshua Hall at 07:30 AM
·
Comments (6)
10 Things I Am Thankful For This Christmas
1. A spouse that not only consented to letting me pursue my dreams, but went along with the sixty percent reduction in living standards without ever making me feel bad about it. 2. My son. 3. That my better half who knows me well enough to know that I would love these excellent t-shirts from the Mises Institute for Christmas. I would have been ecstatic with any of the six, but she knows me well enough to choose the excellent Hayek and Rothbard ones. 4. My in-laws, who undertook considerable effort and expense to watch my son during finals week when my wife was traveling so I could finish out the semester strong. 5. The opportunity to work under Russ Sobel. 6. Mike Munger, for writing this little piece on publishing your work (see also here). It serves as a constant reminder for me of the approach I want to take with research and is directly responsible for a journal acceptance I received last week. His advice ranks right behind James Buchanan’s “keep the ass to the chair” in terms of important advice for any aspiring academic. So far I think I’m following the advice pretty well – six conference presentations of which four have been published and two are currently under review. 7. Our wonderful department chair, for his tremendous support for graduate student conference presentations. To have a chairman who will support multiple conference presentations from a second-year student is amazing and is but one of the many reasons I have never regretted my decision to come to West Virginia. 8. My fellow students (especially MG) because what they say about learning more from your fellow students than from your classes is pretty on the mark. 9. The Earhart Foundation and the Institute for Humane Studies for their fellowships. I would never have been able to write five papers this semester if I had to be a teaching assistant. 10. Glenfiddich (and great friends to drink it with).
December 26, 2005
Durkdurkistan President celebrates 20th anniversary in power
Sorry, I meant Turkmenistan, the ex-Soviet state just north of Iran, where President-for-life (so declared since 1999) Saparmurat Niyazov rivals North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il for megalomania and iron-fisted control. It would be comic if it weren’t so real. The Washington Post reported last week: Festivities to mark his two decades in power began Tuesday in Niyazov's home Akhal region where citizens were offered shows, concerts, sports competitions and food. […] The BBC reported a few years ago that he had his likeness woven into “what is probably the world's largest handmade carpet.” It also noted that “the most spectacular of [his statues] is the 12-metre revolving image of him atop a 23-metre high tower in the city's central square.” Meanwhile, “Schoolchildren have to recite oaths of allegiance to their leader every day.” His current banknote portrait (the same on every denomination) can be seen here. A new design (different portrait) can be seen here on the Turkmenistan government’s official site. Note that the 50 manat may be the world's only currency showing a horse's ass on both sides of the note! Coin portrait here. Niyazov calls himself “Turkmenbashi,” leader of all Turkmens. Some other evidence for what is politely called his “personality cult”: The town of Turkmenbashi is named in his honor. At least one district in all Turkmen regions is also named for the leader, and there is a street bearing his name in virtually every settlement. That’s right, he renamed a month of the calendar after himself.
Markets in Everything--Uncle Tom's Cabin
ROCKVILLE, Md. -- In the brisk Washington real estate market, the white colonial was an easy sale _ three bedrooms, easy access to a major commuting route and an acre of land, a rarity in the tightly packed suburbs. However, the 18th-century house had one thing the McMansions could never claim _ the original Uncle Tom's cabin. Attached to the side is a small, one-room building, its walls made of graying split oak beams. A massive stone chimney rises at the back, above the large hearth where slaves once tended meals for a plantation owner. Among the farm's slaves was Josiah Henson, the man whom Harriet Beecher Stowe used as a model for the Uncle Tom character in her 1852 novel on slavery, "Uncle Tom's Cabin." Less than a month after being put on the market for about $1 million, the cabin and the house are being purchased by Montgomery County. HT to MR for the markets in everything concept.
December 25, 2005
Bollywood 2005 in review
Here is a list of the top all-India grossers for 2005. Here is an overview from the Financial Express, noting the predominance of comedies atop the list. Where most Bollywood films feature 5 or so songs, two of the top four films for 2005 (Black, Sarkar) had zero songs. An anomaly or a trend? Perhaps a bit of each. Film songs are so deeply embedded in Bollywood film culture and marketing – the soundtrack is typically released about a month in advance to generate publicity for the film opening – that songless films will continue to be rare. But with the successes of Black and Sarkar, perhaps less rare in the future. Sarkar was directed by India’s most stylish director, Ramgopal Varma, who has gone songless before (Bhoot). Black was directed by the very mainstream Sanjay Leela Bhansali, whose previous hit Devdas relied heavily on songs. It was an okay year for my favorite Bollywood subgenre, the underworld flick, led by Sarkar. Also worth watching: D. I’m looking forward to Apaharan, a movie about the kidnapping racket in Bihar, which recently opened strongly. It stars Nana Patekar, the most consistently compelling actor working in Bollywood today, star of my 2004 favorite Ab Tak Chappan. I haven’t seen Mumbai Godfather; it got bad reviews.
December 24, 2005
Sowell interview to air today
This afternoon at 5pm Eastern, 4pm Central, Fox News will rebroadcast its hour-long special interview with economist Thomas Sowell, 75. Count on large doses of Sowell’s acerbic wit. I have a personal interest in watching this one: 25 years ago, I had the good fortune to take the last graduate course Sowell taught at UCLA before moving to the Hoover Institution at Stanford. It was a thoughtfully designed and rigorous survey of topics in the history of economic thought. Three students started the course; I was the only one to finish it. The man has never suffered fools gladly -- and his readers have been the beneficiaries.
December 23, 2005
Adam Smith, the original Intelligent Design advocate? Huh?
James K. Galbraith writes, Like Intelligent Design, the idea of the Invisible Hand stubbornly persists in the face of overwhelming evidence JKG argues that Smith was unscientific (i.e., religious) to believe in a natural harmony between individual interests (under certain conditions) and societal interests. He believed in the "god" of natural law. My quick rebuttal: For Smith to believe that human beings are guided by systematic rules of behavior is no more faith-based than when natural scientists claim the same about the rules governing the physical universe. Read the whole silly thing here.
Ian Vasquez on Arab Economic Freedom
From yeserday's Washington Times: MUSCAT, Oman. -- The idea [that] economic freedom is essential to human progress catches on in the Arab world. At a gala dinner here attended by hundreds of Arab diplomats and other prominent guests, a new Omani organization, the International Research Foundation, released an "Economic Freedom of the Arab World" report showing how big differences in policies in the region can produce big differences in economic outcomes. [Link worth clicking on just to see the hotties selling conservative t-shirts.]
Google will eat itself
We generate money by serving Google text advertisments on a network of hidden Websites. With this money we automatically buy Google shares. Only 3.4 billion years to go... [Link]
December 22, 2005
Eastern European Flat Taxes
Daniel Mitchell has a good article on the spread of the flat tax across eastern Europe in today's WaPo. HT: Wilson Mixon
Reporters in Need of "The Diff"
From today's WSJ "Best of the Web Today": Something is wrong with the arithmetic in this dispatch from Reuters: President George W. Bush ranks as the least popular and most bellicose of the last ten U.S. presidents, according to a new survey. Only nine percent of the 662 people polled picked Bush as their favorite among the last 10 presidents. John F. Kennedy topped that part of the survey, with 26 percent, closely followed by Bill Clinton (25 percent) and Ronald Reagan (23 percent). So let's see if we have this straight: these four presidents combined account for 26% (JFK) plus 23% (Reagan) plus 25% (Clinton) plus 9% (Bush). That's a total of 83%. Therefore a total of 17% of those surveyed picked one of the remaining six presidents--or, to put it another way, those six presidents scored an average of 2.83%. It's conceivable that one of the six bested Bush's 9%--but no more than one of them could have, which means Bush is at least the fifth most popular of the 10 most recent presidents. For more on The Diff click here.
Haven’t got the balls to play cricket?
In Zimbabwe, it’s a crime to import them without permission from the central bank. Reported earlier this month on TV's ICC Cricket World and here: Two more senior Zimbabwe cricket officials have been arrested for allegedly violating the country's strict exchange control regulations, a newspaper reported Wednesday. […] Earlier in the same week another official and two players had been arrested for exchange- control violations. The Herald said charges against Chingoka and Bvute involved their alleged payment of foreign currency to suppliers outside the country without permission from Zimbabwe's central bank. The exchange controllers may seem a tad zealous here, but it’s the principle of the thing: if you allow the criminal importation of cricket balls, who knows what might be next? Zimbabweans might start wantonly importing things they actually need to survive.
College Students Need "The Diff" Too
A few years back the student government association of NC State staged a protest over a proposed tuition hike. One protester is in the right-hand photo here; apparently she also needs The Diff. Bonus coverage: The student in the left-hand photo (apparently taken at UNC-CH with the "Old Well" in the background) needs a spellchecker. HT: Jon Sanders
December 21, 2005
Back in college, we thought he looked more like John Denver
In Time Magazine’s cover story on “The Year of Charitainment”, James Poniewozik asks: More interesting than why celebrities take up causes--and tougher to answer--is why the rest of us pay attention to them. Granted, there is the rare celeb, like Bono, who becomes a bona fide expert, but why should I turn to him for advice on solving poverty any more than I'd buy a ticket to watch global-poverty guru Jeffrey Sachs sing I Will Follow? The unstated premise being that you should turn to Jeffrey Sachs for advice on solving poverty? You might want instead to turn to economists whose view of what to do relies less on wishful thinking about the consequences of US taxpayers funding third-world governments and multinational bureaucracies. For example, William Easterly, who has previously juxtaposed Bono with Sachs and explained here just where Sachs goes off the rails. In a nutshell: "Sachs pays surprisingly little attention to the history of aid approaches and results."
Bradbury & Sauer on WSJ Econoblog
JC Bradbury of Sabernomics and Skip Sauer of The Sports Economist tackle this year's baseball free agent market and other topics in the latest WSJ Econoblog. An excellent exchange chock full of neat economics!
Blogging is...addictive, or seductive?
A "friend" of mine noticed that I had broken my (never credible) promise to eschew blogging back on M.E. Last week I posted this.... His diagnosis: Thanks, man. I think. Some people claim that blogging is addictive. Maybe I just want to put it more romantically, but I think that blogging is seductive. The evidence? Google on "blogging is addictive": more than 800 entries... Check this post, and the comments, for some insights....
December 20, 2005
Cause or Effect?
Google Zeitgeist has posted its 2005 report. The graphs are very interesting and if the raw data were available, there could be some interesting empirical research in combining Google search terms and what's being aired/printed in the mass media. For example, here is the graph on Avian Bird Flu. Are the searches the cause of the increased media awareness and alarm or are the searches the effect? The king-maker version of the MSM suggests that the searches are the effect of the media hype, but I wonder.
How about this one dealing with WMD or Weapons of Mass Destruction? Does this mean the topic wasn't important after the election or that the matter had been settled (which might explain why those who keep arguing "there were not WMDs" don't seem to get a lot of traction)?
A minor complaint: The vertical axes have no scale (which is likely done on purpose to protect Google's information) so the best we can glean from the graphs are relative changes. Little blogging by me over the next week.
Someone Who Needs "The Diff"
The WSJ's "Best of the Web Today" reprints this post from the left-wing fever swamp DemocraticUnderground (I won't provide a link): I would dare to assume that most of us here are in the upper 1%-20% of the population intelligence-wise. We must come to the realization that the majority of the population is in the lower 80% to 99% percent of the bell-curve. WE are not the norm. The Republicans understand that the average American is not very bright. They cater and pander to the masses. The Democratic Party tries to appeal to the population about "issues" that these people just don't understand. The poster must be the target audience for The Diff. NB: Expect little, if any, blogging from me over the next 2-3 weeks. After hosting my parents, siblings, etc this weekend, I'm off to spend next week in northern Michigan with the in-laws. (This thin-blooded Southerner will be planted close to the fireplace reading The Undercover Economist.) Then it's on the AEA meetings in Boston. Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all readers and co-bloggers.
Shipping the Good Bananas Out
Interesting NYTimes article from Dec. 16, by Tim Harford. Excerpt: AT this week's ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization in Hong Kong, negotiators have once again hit an impasse over how and when to open the rich world's agricultural markets to farmers in the poorest countries. What few people have realized, however, is that poor countries don't have to wait for the World Trade Organization. There is plenty that they can and should do to help their own farmers to trade. Imagine a dream scenario in which the trade ministers emerge from their negotiations this weekend holding hands and proclaiming an end to all agricultural protectionism. What then? For, say, a banana picker in the Central African Republic, not a lot. The trade barriers at the borders of the rich world may have disappeared, but if our picker wants to sell his bananas abroad he first has to get them onto a ship bound for America or Europe. That takes 116 days, and an incredible 38 signatures - each one an opportunity for some official to collect a bribe. Something is rotten here, and not just the bananas. Sub-Saharan African exporters face, on average, delays of nearly 50 days for each shipment. They must get roughly 20 signatures on eight or nine separate customs forms. (These figures are all documented in "Doing Business in 2006: Creating Jobs," a report released in September by the World Bank. A disclosure: I was an adviser to the report team.) Part of the problem, of course, is that landlocked African countries are linked to the outside world by long, decrepit roads and underdeveloped ports in neighboring countries. But determined growers can move bananas along even lousy roads. The real problem is elsewhere: three-quarters of delays are the result of red tape, not port handling or inland transport. These delays, caused by senseless bureaucracy, unnecessary forms and archaic inspection practices, can often be eliminated with a stroke of a pen by a country's chief executive. Even the more sophisticated reforms, like introducing electronic filing, or using software to guide sensible risk-based customs inspections, require only small outlays. What's more, such reforms increase the interception of smuggled goods and discourage corrupt customs officials. Always tempting to think that improving trade and reducing transactions costs will help poor countries immediately. But....what if they don't want to be helped, or act like they don't? Bureaucratic jobs confer status, and a chance to extort money. Hard to negotiate around that, when the claim that "we will find you another job" rings hollow. So, customs "officials" kill trade, and prevent wealth, in spite of the best intentions. (nod to Katie at CV) Posted by Michael Munger at 05:50 PM
·
TrackBack (0)
The World is Flat
Last night I finished reading Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat. I liked it much more than I expected, but that's not a very high threshold. A one sentence summary: Friedman explains how techonological innovation has influenced business practices and increased international economic integration. There's lots to like about Friedman's book. He recognizes that the rapid technological changes of the last decade have improved people's lives. He recognizes that the world is not zero-sum and that international trade is mutually beneficial. (At one point, he even refers to anti-globalization folks as the "Coalition to Keep Poor People Poor.") He recognizes that productivity is at least as important cheap labor in determining where goods and services are produced. And he recognizes the importance of institutions in economic development. This is much more than I expected from a pillar of the MSM establishment, especially one who calls the NYT editorial page home. (Tierney excepted.) One of the highlights was his discussions of Wal-Mart's and UPS's use of technology in production and inventory management. These sections of the book ought to be required reading in business school operations management classes. There are also a few things to dislike. He embraces a more activitist role for government than I think is warranted. He drops in some cheap political shots and takes a swipe at Wal-Mart's health insurance policies. He's a world class name dropper--"my friend ____" [fill in the blank with a CEO such as Gates or Whitman or a prominent government leader]. And he's a bit sloppy with some facts (we invaded Iraq in March 2003 not 2002; Moussauoi is thought to be the 20th hijacker not the 19th). Overall, though, a surprisingly good effort.
Bad Santas
They are apparently a real problem this year. An excerpt: One Santa was stopped by police for driving 150 kph (90 mph) on a northern German motorway, 50 kph over the speed limit. "He said he was in a rush because he still had packages to deliver," said a spokesman for the police. They gave Santa a fine and took away his license. A different excerpt, my favorite: In Britain, police said they were looking for a Santa acting suspiciously -- a flasher who exposed himself to women. Hey, Santa: That package is too small to deliver! And why don't you wrap it? UPDATE: RL sends some more links for Bad Santas....
Cultural globalization personified
Seen recently on AZN-TV’s Showbiz India Extreme: DeLon Jayasingha, an LA-based Sri Lankan – American performer whose music mixes hip-hop, salsa, and reggae, with lyrics in English, Spanish, and Sinhalese …
"The Central Role of Economic Freedom in Democracy"
By Ian Vásquez, director of the Cato Institute’s Project on Global Economic Liberty, and a term member, Council on Foreign Relations Of the cherished liberties of a free society—economic, political, and civil—economic freedom holds a special place. It is not only an end in itself; economic freedom gives sustenance to the other freedoms. When personal choice, voluntary exchange, and the protection of private property are not secure, it is difficult to imagine how political freedom or civil liberties can meaningfully be exercised. [Whole thing.]
A cartel by any other name c. 1905
Industrial Organization economists have long recognized the potential for anti-trust enforcement and other regulation, especially in the area of price, to help enforce or foster collusion. From the Dec. 20, 1905 NYT, after the Interstate Commerce Commission Act of 1887 and the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, but before a laundry-list of illegal acts was enumerated in the Clayton Act of 1914, is a story concerning so-called "rebating," or what we economists call price discrimination, on railroads: CHICAGO - Executive officials of all Western railroads at a meeting here to-day entered into an agreement with a view to compelling a strict adherence to the provisions of the inter-State commerce laws. Every road bound itself to inform the Inter-State Commerce Commission of any illegal acts on the part of any road.That's a wonderful formula for collusion in a "don't throw me in that brier patch" kind of way. In an example of letting the inmates run the asylum, and yet more potential for collusion to take place, it was proposed to create yet another "committee" to investigate and root out any illegal behavior amongst the railroads. Was this a state or federal commmittee? Please. In order to keep in close touch with the situation, it was agreed that the roads would appoint a committee to represent variuos Western freight associations and to canvass the situation from time to time and report violations of the law. It will be the duty of this committee to furnish evidence in the event of an investigation. The railroads to the federal government: "don't call us, we'll call you." The railroad men admit that [i]t was the general opinion at the meeting that since the law had abrogated the penitentiary clause and substituted a fine against railroads violating the law, railroad men should no longer feel any delicacy in giving information regarding infractions of the law. Becker suggested that monetary fines could be more efficient forms of punishment than jail time, but I read his main point being that putting productive individuals in jail imposed a dead weight loss on society that was inefficient. Perhaps an extension of the monetary fine vs. jail time comparison (if it hasn't already been considered) would be that "friends don't like sending friends to jail" but don't mind if "friends have to pay a fine with other people's (shareholders) money." In other words, a group of individuals may turn a blind eye to enforcement if going to jail is more likely - this sounds like Congressmen and ethics complaints, "there will be no crime if the honorable gentleman must do time." But I digress, Becker did suggest that the greater the odds of detection/conviction the lower the incidence of criminal/illegal behavior, on the margin. These railroad executives seem to buy into this logic. If jail-time is off the table, railroad men are more likely to rat their neighbors out, which, in turn, should reduce criminal behavior (in this case price discrimination). The reward to society for such noble enforcement efforts? Likely, higher prices. All of this stemming from the practice of price discrimination which, while not universally welfare enhancing, is far from unambiguosly welfare reducing.
December 19, 2005
But Apple is so much better!!
So goes the Apple vs. PC Clone debate which seems to be maintained mainly by Apple fans. I played with Apple's in middle school, but my first machine was a Tandy Model 4, and eventually an IBM XT. By the time I left high school to go to UGA in 1987, I had a new Northgate (now Gateway?) machine with a monochrome (amber) monitor and a 10MB hard drive. The market spoke and Apple and the other competitors at the time lost (at least the first few rounds). This article gives a nice history of the PC, and includes this interesting graph:
HT: J-Walk blog
Macro effects of a pandemic?
This CBO document showed up in my e-mail today. It is a description of the possible macroeconomic (and other) effects of the Avian flu H5N1 mutating to either a serious or a mild pandemic. From the article: The first, and more severe, scenario is roughly similar to the 1918-1919 Spanish flu outbreak. In the severe-pandemic scenario, roughly 90 million people become sick and 2 million people die in the United States, and in CBO’s estimation, real GDP would be about 5 percent lower over the subsequent year than it would have been had the pandemic not taken place.That estimate of the effect on GDP is comparable to the effect of a typical business-cycle recession in the United States during the period since World War II [emphasis added] . and In the mild-pandemic scenario, which resembles the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, about 75 million people are infected in the United States and about 100,000 of them die. In that scenario, the pandemic reduces real GDP by a modest amount, about 1.5 percent relative to what would have happened without a pandemic, but probably would not cause a recession and might not be distinguishable from the normal variation in economic activity. The pundits and talking heads describe a pandemic is Katrina x 1000 or so. From the CBO estimates, the major impacts will be felt in the transportation and entertainment industries. I suppse this makes sense as these are two major sectors where people congregate amongst strangers, and in the case of a pandemic would be natural places to avoid. The document is something to consider, I suppose, but I wonder if this analysis is reasonable - I am no macroeconomist.
Insurgency c. 1905
In today's environment, the term "insurgency" is thrown around in dire terms - to the point, it seems, that some want us out of Iraq now because we cannot win. Perhaps some perspective (always in short supply it seems) would be useful? During the Fall of 1905 there has been considerable unrest in Russia, which has spilled over into Poland and now into the Baltic republics. In what lays the seeds for the 1917 revolution, the Czar has been trying to both placate the revolutionists/insurgents while at the same time maintaining power. From the Dec. 19, 1905 NYT is the following description of an insurgency that was "winning" (at least at the time): MITAU - The troops, in order to avoid annihilation at the hands of the insurgents, have been forced to abandon the country districts and to concentrate at Riga, Mitau, and Libau, where they actually are standing on the defensive, unable to make head against the insurgents.In another story from the same issue: ST. PETERSBURG - The War Department is concentrating two army corps to suppress the revolt in the Baltic provinces. According to the Government's information 60,000 Letts are under arms...The insurgents of Livonia derailed on Dec. 14, near Stockmansof, a military train which was carrying reinforcements from Vilna to Riga. They then attacked the survivors of the wreck...Half the troops on board the train surrendered to the insurgents...the remainder of the troops held out for four days. Their position when last heard from was desperate. Perhaps some would claim this description partly fits what the U.S. military is experiencing in the Iraqi insurgence, but I don't see it that way. If our military did face potential "annihilation" we would be out of there faster than even most anti-war folks could imagine. On the other hand, perhaps the Iraqi insurgency of today is, in some loosely defined "real terms," as bad as what happened in the Baltics/Russia in 1905. [An aside: There are numerous reports of thousands of Jews being killed across Russia. These reports have been met with millions of dollars of private relief, especially in the form of evacuation, from around the world. There have also been a few private offers of arms with which the Jewish minority could defend themselves. The descriptions of massacres are stomach-turning in today's world, but were evidently not enough to terribly excite the national governments of the world. One gets the feeling that the world in 1905 was used to strife, killing, and political/social turmoil that is, today, not something the Western world is comfortable/experienced with (that is just my impression, however).]
Can we imagine this today?
From the Dec. 19, 1905 NYT: Washington [D.C.] to-day celebrate[s] the centennial of the establishment of the public schools of the District of Columbia...the President [Teddy Roosevelt] said: "It has been my good fortune that all of my children have received, or are receiving, a portion of their education in the public schools of this District, in this city, and I feel that the advantage to them is incalculable. I don't have any statistics, but I wonder how many Senators, Representatives, Presidents, and Justices, are sending their children to DC public schools for the "incalculable" advantage. I think I remember the number today being in the single digits, but I can't remember when/where I heard this (perhaps during one of the presidential campaigns - 2000 maybe?).
Primer on Health Savings Accounts
Mike DeBow has written a nifty primer on health savings accounts for North Carolina's John Locke Foundation.
What Took Them So Long to Figure It Out?
The title of my posting on July 13: The Sexiest Discipline Known to Mankind The headline of a Dec 26 article in Newsweek: Economics: Sexiest Trade Alive As I did in July, the Newsweek article also quotes Vanderbilt's John Siegfried on the 40% increase in economics majors.
Scandal-tainted Bank of Italy head finally resigns
From Bloomberg: Bank of Italy Governor Antonio Fazio, the only euro-zone central banker appointed for life, resigned amid a criminal probe into his oversight of bank takeovers in Italy. Fazio was implicated in a scandal months ago, showing favoritism in approving an Italian friend’s bank merger proposal over an outsider’s takeover bid. He has been Governor since 1993. Although Italy’s premier has been calling for his resignation for months, the government could not force him to resign. Lesson: maybe there’s such a thing as too much central bank independence. Especially when the central bank, like the Bank of Italy, is no longer responsible for monetary policy, but only acts as a bank regulator.
December 18, 2005
Decreasing Returns to Scale in Typing c. 1905
From the Dec. 18, 1905 NYT: FORT WORTH, Texas, Dec. 17 -Alexander M. Mood, deputy Clerk to the Court of Civil Appeals, yesterday broke the world's typewriting record.I am a pretty fast (and fairly accurate - on a good day) typist, but 5,000 words in an hour? Wow. Such a record evidently wasn't worth much more than a mention in the paper. A Google search of "alexander mood"+"typing" yielded 8 hits, none of which deal with this particular feat. [Update: Readers Brandon B. and Steven H. email to point out that the 1905 record was approximately 90 words per minute, which would not be considered extremely fast on today's computers. I appreciate the point. I have two responses. First, Mr. Mood did the 90 wpm for an entire hour, although he evidently flagged a little in the second half-hour, hence the title of the post. Second, as guessed by Brandon, I failed to mention in the original post that my reference was an old manual typewriter that didn't have automatic carriage return, on-the-fly spelling correctors (which I often need), and more ergonomic keyboards (ah, memories of touch-typing class in pre-widespread-PC 1983). Speaking of keyboards, I wonder which layout he was using - QWERTY is pretty good, and I know there are arguments against it, but the QWERTY keyboard didn't exist in 1905 did it? Thanks for the comments!]
Especially if it's broke, don't fix it?
From the Dec. 18, 1905 NYT, a letter to the editor that could have been written today: We have had one contested Presidential election. It menaced the Republic with the renewal of civil war. It was settled by means which every one recognized to be extra-Constitutional, and which great numbers of American people regarded as unconstitutional, and as bringing about an illegal and unjust result. Only eight years later we had a Presidential election turning on a plurality in this State which the change of a few hundred votes would have destroyed...Those classes which, heretofore, have been relied on to maintain and defend these [democratic] principles are, at the present moment, demoralized by recent exposures. Other exposures may await us and a greater demoralization. In December 1905 there is a contested mayoral election outcome in New York City, and there are several allegations of election fraud, ballot confusion, and so forth. Perhaps it is not possible to truly "fix" the problem of elections - the human element will always befuddle reform efforts - however, our sophistication and technology haven't brought us too far from what this letter writer has to say.
December 17, 2005
Private vs. Public Education c. 1905
In a small article from the Dec. 17, 1905 NYT: The Committee on High Schools of the Jersey City Board of Education has notified Mgr. Shepard, Vicar General of the Newark Diocese, that rectors of the Catholic churches will be heard this week...on their petition for admission of parochial school graduates, on certificate, to the City High School [emphasis added]. Rather than fighting to keep students in the public education system, as they do today, it seems that in the early 1900s the public education system fought to keep church-educated students out. In an equally bizarre twist, the church educators wanted to get students into the public education system in the early 1900s but today want to get students out of the public education system. One would have thought that students appealing to get into the public education establishment would not have been denied, if only because more students in the public schools would increase the political/economic power of the public education establishment (which would yield more rents). Perhaps at this time church education wasn't on par with the government education. which would have increased the work burden of public school teachers and therefore provided an incentive to deny the students access? Hmmm....
December 16, 2005
Taking advantage of drunks?
From Yahoo! News is a story concerning bundling - in this case liquor and gems: The Ruby Red is a tangy mix of vodka, champagne, cognac, pomegranate liqueur and orange juice. Is there a responsibility on the part of the bar to NOT sell this to an intoxicated individual, or at least to let the party concerned out of paying the full bill?
Perhaps a little late
SmartStuff is a pretty cool website with interesting and clever products. Kinda like Sharper Image but perhaps higher quality? Perhaps a little late for this Christmas season, although for a price perhaps anything can be delivered?
Saber rattling in professional sports c. 2005
It seems that we are heading into yet another round of threatened franchise relocations if cities and states don't start planning for the next orgy of spending on sports venues. In the past few weeks: the Florida Marlins are in discussion with San Antonio because Miami won't build a new stadium, the Saints are talking with San Antonio and (shhh) Los Angeles because New Orleans will need a new/renovated stadium (current bill $200m) but the city has lost much of its population base, the Pittsburgh Penguins are threatening to relocate to Kansas City(?!), the Milwaukee Bucks are threatening that they might have to leave if they don't get a new arena, and now the owner of the Seattle Supersonics is threatening the same. All of this saber rattling is interesting. Exactly where do the owners of the Bucks and Sonics think they will go? What city big enough to host an NBA team doesn't have one already? I can think of a few that might fit the bill, but beware the New Orleans/Charlotte syndrome - strong demand in the first two years and then boredom and disaster thereafter. Perhaps the following cities are on the list: Nashville, Las Vegas (pro sports in Vegas?), Jacksonville, Columbus (OH), Cincinnati, and St. Louis? Hmmm...those might work for basketball, but where are the Penguins going to relocate if the KC deal falls through? San Antonio is actually a good place for either a baseball/football team (perhaps both) - the San Antonio/Austin area is well over a million people and there are plenty of folks with money. Other than that, it seems that the threats of relocation are even more empty than in the past. Perhaps the leagues have done this to themselves through "too much" expansion - at least too much to make extortion practical. |