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September 24, 2008
The Troubled Orchard Relief Program
Howdy. I grow apples in the Northwest. A few years ago I took advantage of low interest rates and federal farm-loan subsidies to borrow money to clear land and plant apple trees. Trouble is, so did lots of other apple-growers. Now we have so many apple trees out here producing fruit that the price of apples is depressed, and so is the price of my new orchard. I’m not making enough selling my apple crop to cover my loan payments, and I can’t sell my orchard for a high enough price to pay off the loan. In retrospect, I obviously made a mistake planting those trees. Now what? Until last week I thought my only two options were: I bear the loss and keep up the loan payments somehow, or my lender bears the loss by renegotiating the loan or having it written down for him when I declare bankruptcy. While I’m debating which one of those to choose, and I might go bankrupt, nobody will refinance my other debts at low rates. (Meanwhile my Uncle Freddie, who lent me the money, made a bunch of other bad orchard loans. He made an even bigger mistake than mine. I heard that he's in bankruptcy court now.) My neighbors Ben and Hank, however, have a third option. They have a different way of looking at the problem. They think the reason that nobody will offer a good enough price for my orchard (and other orchards like it) is that the usual orchard buyers are just temporarily spooked. They think it will pass. They think the three of us should pool our money, set up a new fund, and use it to buy my and other distressed orchards at better than the going price. With the orchard off my own books, they say I can more easily meet the payments on my other loans, and I’ll be able to get new loans. Later our fund will sell the orchards off for what they’re really worth. Now, I think they’re being foolish. What with all the overplanted trees out there, the apple business and the price of orchards are going to remain depressed for a long while. Barring some unforeseen event that boosts demand for apples, prices will remain depressed until finally enough apple trees have died off to reduce the crop to where it ought to be. I’d be a fool to put any of my own good money into the fund they’re proposing. But hey, if Ben and Hank can convince some even bigger fool to pay a good price for the orchard I shouldn’t have planted, I’ll cash the check. Posted by Lawrence H. White at 05:21 PM in Economics
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