"My country has in its wisdom contrived for me the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived."

That, of course, was John Adams, first Vice President and second President of the United States, writing to his wife Abigail during his stifling tenure as Veep.

Even with succession, the office hasn't come very far. Here's a quick list of what you get as VPOTUS:
1. You're the second ranking executive office holder in the free world. Very cool if you're maximizing status and Secret Service details.
2. There's a chance you'll become president if your boss leaves office. In the last 100 years Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman and especially Gerald Ford seem to be the big winners here. But a presidential historian could fill in some detail.
3. You get to break ties in the Senate. From Coolidge to now, there have been just 55 such tie-breakers, and five Veeps got zero (Quayle, Rockefeller, Ford, LBJ and Coolidge).
4. After 8 years you are a presumptive frontrunner for your party's presidential nomination. The upside here is you have years to build your organization and no real responsibilities or vote record to defend. The downside, you're identified by your predecessor and carry some of his baggage. Aside from Nixon and Bush 1, only John Adams, Jefferson, and Van Buren have made this work.

I think that's about it. Otherwise you basically have no power, especially in the Administration unless your president wants to involve you. Cheney is effectively a cabinet member under W., but that's the exception. The Clintons had to find something just to keep Gore busy (remember National Performance Review?). And Dan Quayle, well....

A little public choice here. Assume politicians maximize power--maybe for legacy, maybe to really do good for society, the ends don't necessarily matter. Notice that the list above generally consists of expected benefits--things that might happen. So, the question is: what type of politician would accept the V.P. nomination? The answer, generally, is one who has accumulated relatively little political capital compared to other politicians of national recognition.

A junior senator or new governor make sense because a youngish pol may be willing to take a chance on (2) and (4) rather than sticking it out in the Senate or Statehouse. The benefits are uncertain on either path. Although committee assignments matter less in the Senate than the House, junior Senators can get stuck on low-value or "burden" committees while their senior colleagues sit tight on the Finance, Armed Services, Labor, and Judiciary committees (see paper by Tim Groseclose and Charles Stewart). But a high-powered senator has too much to lose. Politicians like to invest their political capital, not convert it into sunk costs. An ex-governor also makes sense, especially in a term limited state, because his political capital isn't tied to state politics. But generally any "rising star" will do because, well, he or she hasn't risen yet.

CNN is hyping McCain's upcoming trip to Louisiana, where he'll meet with Gov. Jindal. But Intrade has Jindal tied for 4th with Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 11%, trailing Alaska Gov. Sara Palin at 13% and leader Mitt Romney at 31%. For Obaman, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, and Delaware Senator Joe Biden are all trading above 15%, and Hillary Clinton is at 13.8%.

My story here, and history, suggest not betting on Biden or Clinton. If you don't need a stepping stone, you're not going to be interested in being Veep.

Addendum: by email from Tim Groseclose:

Here's a fact that someone might want to mention on a blog. Yesterday, according to Intrade.com, John Edwards' chance of being the Dem VP was about 6.5%. Today, after Drudge and the National Eqnquirer present evidence that he has a mistress and love child, his chance is about 9%!