Will Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr be a factor in '08? Probably not, but don't discount the idea completely: at least some polls show Barr polling in the six percent range nationally. Third party support typically falls off close to election day, but in some crucial states. notably Georgia, which Barr represented for most of a decade in Congress, there is reason to believe he can hold most of his support, which has neared the 10 percent level in some polls.

Barr's fundraising has been so-so: he's raised about $50,000 a week, on average, since gaining the Libertarian nomination four weeks ago. But his media coverage has been impressive. He's done, among others, Fox News (at least twice) and CNN, the hip Colbert Report on Comedy Central, a full hour on Glen Beck's TV show on CNN, and Geraldo. This week he'll be doing some major talk radio, including Dennis Miller on Monday and Bob Grant later in the week.

If this is not quite Cadillac coverage, it's better than any Libertarian candidate has ever gotten before. A Lexis/Nexis search finds 427 stories referencing "Bob Barr" in the four weeks since his nomination on May 25 - by comparison, a Lexis search finds just 49 stories mentioning 2004 LP nominee Michael Badnarik in the four weeks after his nomination on May 27, 2004.

He's also got the requisite meet up groups going at Meetup, Facebook, and MySpace, and other web sites.

The obstacles to Barr's success - or that of any third party or independent candidate - are enormous. Ballot access laws force minor parties to spend large sums just getting on the ballot, whereas the Republican and Democratic Parties typically get automatic access in all 50 states. Campaign finance laws work against third parties, by limiting the amounts that can be contributed (historically, new parties, because of their smaller base of support, are more reliant on large donors) and by scaring away donors (I know of at least three people who have intentionally donated less than $200 to Barr's campaign in order to avoid having the names disclosed, as required by law for donors of $200 or more. Surely there are many more who limit their support or don't donate at all. For business and political reasons, many supporters, especially those active in politics or with business before the government, are afraid to make their support public). As Michael Munger has learned in his run for North Carolina Governor, it is almost impossible for even the most credible third party candidates to get into public debates. Most of all, the winner take all system of voting used in the U.S. (which I support) will always make it very difficult for a new party to break the two-party monopoly.

Still, Barr may be the is the strongest Libertarian nominee ever, and almost certainly since the articulate Ed Clark, funded by his wealthy running mate David Koch, picked up a bit over one percent of the vote in 1980. With many small government Republicans dismayed over the nomination of John McCain, there is an opening for Barr to gain meaningful numbers of votes and to draw attention to the need for and benefits of limited government.