May 15, 2008
Koppl in Forbes on Forensics

Roger Koppl has a column in the new online and print editions of Forbes, called "What's Wrong with CSI". The editors also run this accompanying editorial. From the opening lines of Roger's column.

Forensic evidence is foolproof, right? It's how those clever cops on CSI always catch the killer. DNA evidence springs innocent men from prison. Fingerprints nab the bad guys.

If only forensics were that reliable.

Roger goes on to discuss error rates in fiber, paint, body fluids, fingerprints, and DNA testing, and then talks about a few of the many "horror stories" that come from these error rates. Roger then summarizes his economic and institutional analysis.

The core problem with the forensic system is monopoly. Once evidence goes to one lab, it is rarely examined by any other. That needs to change. Each jurisdiction should include several competing labs. Occasionally the same DNA evidence, for instance, could be sent to three different labs for analysis.

This procedure may seem like a waste. But such checks would save taxpayer money. Extra tests are inexpensive compared to the cost of error, including the cost of incarcerating the wrongfully convicted. A forthcoming study I wrote for the Independent Institute (a government-reform think tank) shows that independent triplicate fingerprint examinations in felony cases would not only eliminate most false convictions that result from fingerprint errors but also would reduce the cost of criminal justice if the false-positive error rate is more than 0.115%, or about one in a thousand.

As I've mentioned previously, one of Roger's studies that focuses primarily on fingerprinting standards is forthcoming in my book, Law without Romance (preview here). In fact, it's the study he cites above. In his chapter, Roger does the cost-benefit analysis to support his results, and he also lays out a series of institutional reforms to forensic science administration that would promote greater efficiency and fewer wrongful convictions. (Independent Institute will be sending the book to publishers soon, and I'll have more to say about the other chapters in due course.)

In the past six months or so, Roger has published a series of studies and op-eds and he's testified before the National Academy of Sciences. Congratulations to Roger for his increasing exposure on this important issue. For more, see his Institute for Forensic Science Administration website, with links to articles and other columns.

Posted by Edward J. Lopez at 09:07 AM in Law

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

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