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April 16, 2008
DL + NWA = DL
As a very frequent Delta flyer I've followed with interest the merger talks with Northwest that were just finalized. The gubmint is probably going to raise all sorts of red flags. And there are union worries on NWA's side. The thing is these airlines have both been in bankruptcy once. If they don't merge (heck even if they do) it is likely that one or both will file again and this time it won't be clear that either will even survive as a company. The bottom line is that contraction is going to occur, either in the form of an orderly merger or a disorderly liquidation. If the gubmint stops the merger, you all can blame them some years (months?) down the line when you get stranded after one or both suddenly stops operations. As for the NWA pilots union, the issue as I understand it, is that they're on average less experienced than DL's pilots. They're worried that when the two groups of pilots are merged, they'll lose relative position on the all-important seniority lists that determine who gets the best assignments. (Btw, doesn't it make you feel good that the pilot up there got that flight, not because he was the best for the job, but because that was the best flight he could get given his seniority status?) Fuel prices may be the catalyst but this deal makes sense anyway as I've been saying for years. DL has great Atlantic routes and NWA has great Pacific routes. DL specializes in the south and NWA in the north domestically. But on both margins they compete head to head for certain routes in the middle of the country and also on Atlantic routes thanks to NWA's extensive code sharing with KLM/AirFrance. (I also think a DL/NWA/KLM/AF deal makes sense as that would add an extensive intra-European market.) The airlines are naturally trying to reassure employees and various affected municipalities. My prediciton: DL's hub at Cincinnati and NWA's hub in Memphis are goners. (Memphis's Interstate BBQ is the best airport joint in America btw. It's near gate B14--look for the long line of NWA pilots!) Posted by Robert Lawson at 08:41 AM in Economics
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