February 27, 2008
More bad news on inflation, and yet Bernanke signals faster money growth

As Bloomberg.com reports:

Consumer prices last year surged 4.1 percent, the most in 17 years, spurred by higher fuel and food costs. A government report yesterday showed the 12-month increase in wholesale costs accelerated to 7.4 percent in January, the biggest jump since 1981.

And yet,

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled the U.S. central bank is prepared to lower interest rates again even as inflation accelerates. ... Traders anticipate the central bank will lower the benchmark rate by at least half a point by the end of the next meeting, on March 18, futures prices show. Officials have lowered the rate by 2.25 percentage points since September, to 3 percent.

Note that, using the year-over-year CPI as a measure of current inflation, the Fed funds rate is currently negative in real terms: 3.0 - 4.1 = -1.1. Not surprisingly foreign investors are dumping short-term dollar assets with the result that, as Forbes headlined, "Dollar slumps to new all-time euro low as Bernanke hints at rate cuts".

So if part of Bernanke's objective is to help revive house sales by lowering long-term interest rates, how's that going? Not well, the AP reports:

The 30-year [Treasury] bond fell 6/32 to 95 16/32 with a 4.68 percent yield, up from 4.67 percent.

Guess what? Cutting the Fed Funds rate -- even threatening to do so -- raises inflation expectations, which raises long-term interest rates. 10-year Treasury bond yields have also risen since mid-January.

Posted by Lawrence H. White at 09:05 PM in Economics

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

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