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July 23, 2007
The Nigerian lottery scam c. 1907?
The July 23, 1907 reports an interesting scam in England: How to win safely at baccarat has been discovered by Sylvain Crollet and his friend, Mme. Noel. The mathematical formula is X equals G divided by 3 plus P. X is thought to be the amount to be won. Unfortunately, we cannot determine P or G. However, a second lady was satisfied, and gave Sylvain 240 [pounds] to which to apply the formula. The latter was such a success that Sylvain was able to pay the lady 12 pounds a month interest. She immediately intrusted to him 500 pounds more, but this time the equation seems to have failed. He paid her 16 pounds the first money, 16 pounds more two or three months later, then nothing at all. In court Sylvain, prosecuted by the lady, explained that his equation should have succeeded, but bad luck pursued him. His mathematical calculations had not foreseen the element of chance. Ostend baccarat tables had completely upset his theorem. Anyhow, he had been unfortunate, not dishonest. But the court thought differently. Sylvain has got a year, and Mme. Noel, six months, while both are jointly sentenced to refund 660 pounds to the deluded lady, plus 20 pounds damages.The single "equation" has two unknowns and therefore P and G cannot be determined uniquely. The fact that an innumerate lady gave money towards such a system seems funny but reminds us that promises of unearned riches are not unique to the Internet age. The defense that it was "bad luck" and the element of "chance" that "upset the theorem" gets a chuckle from me. Posted by Craig Depken at 04:26 PM in Economics
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The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith
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