No big changes in the hurricane season forecasts from Colorado State. Reuters reports, Nine Atlantic Hurricanes Expected in 07:

MIAMI (Reuters) - The Colorado State University hurricane research team renewed its forecast for an "above average" 2007 Atlantic storm season on Thursday and predicted 17 tropical storms, with nine growing to hurricane strength. Of those, five would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with winds over 110 mph (177 kph), the team founded by forecast pioneer William Gray said in its revised forecast.

Here's my post on the April forecast.

Most of what's in the CSU press release gets chopped out of the news reports. Some interesting points:

-The methodology isn't much different from econometric/business forecasting.

The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

-The most important variable seems to be recent and current El Nino conditions:

"We expect an above-average hurricane season with ENSO conditions on the cool side, which will help increase the likelihood of major storm activity in the Atlantic," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team and the lead author of the forecast. "El Nino conditions during the summer and fall - similar to those that developed in 2006 - tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear across the area where Atlantic tropical cyclones develop."

-Which explains hiccups the past two years:

The Colorado State hurricane forecast team has said the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 were anomalies: Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four landfalling hurricanes each year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.

-Human activity doesn't play a role

"We are in a new era for storms that is part of a natural cycle," Gray said. "We've had an upturn of major storms in the Atlantic since 1995. This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. These changes in storm activity are not caused by human-induced global warming but by natural forces."

-A pretty cool user tool is the Landfall Probability Website

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine.

Congratulations to Mitch Mitchell, who has taken a tenure track job at University of South Alabama (U.S.A.). There's a 3.7% chance Mobile County will get a direct hit from an "intense hurricane." 26.7% chance for the coastline from Texas to Florida.

-The entire report is here: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/