Ivan Pongracic, Sr. (my grad school buddy's father), who is a long time teacher of Austrian economics, likes to quip that you could take all the weather forecasters, switch them with all the economics forecasters, and no one would ever be the wiser. With that in mind, weather forecasters are predicting nine Atlantic hurricanes in 2007. Reuters via Yahoo! news reports:

MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be far more active than usual with nine hurricanes, and the United States has an above-average chance of being hit by a major storm, a closely watched forecasting team said on Tuesday.

In an updated outlook, the Colorado State University forecasters led by pioneer researcher William Gray said the June. 1-November 30 season will produce 17 tropical storms. Of the nine hurricanes forecast, five will be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds over 110 mph (177 kph).

London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk also updated its forecast on Tuesday. It calls for 17 tropical storms and nine hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the Phillipines is "running out of weather forecasters"

Martin Rellin, the director of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), said that its pool of weather forecasters had fallen to dangerously low levels.

Of 20 forecasters eight years ago, only 12 now remain -- and half of those are applying for jobs abroad, he said.

Hmm. Running out ...... AT WHAT PRICE?

Some other questions that occur to me out of curiosity or skepticism:
-What's the optimal number of forecast revisions? Too few and you're too off target. Too many and you don't get the media coverage behind each revisions.
-Why are we forecasting hurricanes from Colorado?
-How do these groups coordinate the dates of their forecast revisions?
-Why don't tornado seasons get forecast in the same manner? Or do they?
-The only weather economist I know is Dan Sutter. What would Dan do?