March 12, 2007
Why Krugman is wrong about Friedman

In his New York Review of Books article “Who Was Milton Friedman?,” Paul Krugman notoriously charged Friedman with “intellectual dishonesty”. In a nutshell, Krugman views the Fed’s behavior in the 1930s as evidence that government should do more to manage the macroeconomy, whereas Friedman viewed it as evidence of the opposite. Krugman accused Friedman of “intellectual dishonesty” because he thinks Friedman in his popular writings misrepresented Friedman and Schwartz’s own account of the 1930s found in the Monetary History. Anna Schwartz and co-author Edward Nelson have now responded to Krugman with a letter to the NYRB, and Krugman has replied.

Krugman summarizes his position nicely in his reply:

First, the letter from Anna Schwartz and Edward Nelson actually illustrates Friedman's slippery treatment of the Fed's role in the Depression even better than the examples I used in the article. On one side the letter says, as Friedman did, that the problem was that the Fed did too little—that it failed to exercise its power to rescue the banks. But on the other side the letter approvingly quotes Friedman saying that the Fed did too much—that in the absence of the Fed, with its "enormous power," we wouldn't have had a downturn on "anything like the scale we experienced." I'm sorry, but those are contradictory positions.

Krugman is wrong: those are not contradictory positions.

To see why they are not contradictory, we need to spell out Friedman’s institutional counter-factual. That is, what did Friedman think would have happened without a central bank? Friedman understood something that Krugman never mentions, namely that before the Federal Reserve Act financial panics in the US were mitigated by the actions of private commercial bank clearinghouses. (The key article here is “The Central Banking Role of Clearinghouse Associations," JMCB Feb. 1984, by Richard H. Timberlake, a Friedman student. JSTOR pdf here.) Friedman and Schwartz’s view of the 1930s was that the Fed, having nationalized the roles of the clearinghouse associations, particularly the lender-of-last-resort role, did less to mitigate the panic than the CHAs had done in earlier panics like 1907 and 1893. In that sense, the economy would have been better off if the Fed had not been created.

This position is perfectly consistent with the position that, provided we take the Fed’s nationalization of the clearinghouse roles for granted, the Fed was guilty of not doing its job. Given that proviso, Krugman is right that Friedman’s account indicates that the Fed should have been more active. But because we can consider a world where the proviso doesn't hold, Krugman is wrong to think that Friedman’s account can’t honestly support the view that government should have stayed out.

ADDENDUM: Pushmedia1 uses symbolic logic to characterize Krugman's mistake.

Krugman's initial article here. Schwartz and Nelson's letter and Krugman's reply here. Hat tip: Cyril Morong.

Posted by Lawrence H. White at 12:08 PM in Economics

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

Our Bloggers
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Craig Depken
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden
Noel Campbell

Blogroll

Search

Archives
By Author:
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Edward Bierhanzl
Craig Depken
Ralph R. Frasca
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden
Noel Campbell

By Month:
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004

Powered by
Movable Type 2.661

Site design by
Sekimori

XML