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December 12, 2006
The perfect crime c. 1906
In the Dec. 12, 1906 NYT is an article titled "A $40,000,000 Mail Graft." That's a headline to grab your attention. In 2005 dollars, the headline would read "A $895,871,559.63 Mail Graft" - okay, not down to the penny, but you get the point. What's going on? The article explains that: ...in 1905, the New York Central Railroad was overpaid for carrying mails to the extent of $270,000, and that within the last ten years the Government has overpaid for the carriage of mails about $40,000,000...How could this large overcharge occur year after year? Thanks to a little clever government math, the railroads were making out like, well, railroads being paid by the government*: The cause of these overpayments. Mr. Murdock laid to the antiquated system under the present law, which is thirty-three years old. He said it is the practice to take the daily weight of mail carried for a number of successive working days in order to get the average for the year. The Sunday weight of mail would be included in the grand total, but when the average was taken the Sundays would be stricken from the total o fdays, thus reducing the divisor without a corresponding reduction of the dividend.For those who don't understand, the average weight per day would be calculated as The weight was calculated as if all days in the week, and hence, year were included. However, the number of days was calculated by taking away the Sundays. The result? The calculated average weight of mail per day would be overstated, the railroads were paid based on average weight carried, and hence the railroads were overpaid. Let's take an example. Assume the government/railroad honestly measured the total weight of mail carried over the course of one week to be 100 tons. If all seven days were correctly included in the calculation of the average the result would be 100/7 = 14.28 tons per day. If, instead, only six days were used in the denominator of the ratio, the "average" would be biased upward to 16.66 tons per day! The correct average would be calculated as 85.72/6 = 14.28, that is, it wouldn't change. Was this fraud? I am no lawyer, but I don't think so. After all, the government established the payment system through legislation - which is genius. If the railroads were purposefully overstating how much actual mail was being carried, that would seem fraudulent. Yet, if the railroads were already making 16% more through the "new math" of the government, perhaps they were less prone to engage in fraud that could actually get them in trouble. Incredible. * Rather than "like bandits" Posted by Craig Depken at 02:30 PM in Law
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The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith
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