October 24, 2005
Something’s Gotta Give

Bloomberg is reporting an odd constellation of events in Venezuela: inflation is currently around 16 percent and is expected to keep rising, but nominal interest rates in bolivars were 8.4 percent last week and have been falling. Normally, as any good student of money and banking knows, the nominal interest rate is above the inflation rate (because the market-clearing real interest rate is positive) and the two move in the same direction (to preserve the same underlying real interest rate).

How does Venezuela manage to have negative real interest rates? Later in the Bloomberg article comes this hint:

[Central bank director] Maza said he isn't concerned inflation will accelerate because Venezuela has a fixed exchange rate and government-set price limits.

Not surprisingly, the fixed exchange rate is bolstered by exchange controls: you can’t buy all the US dollars you’d like at the official rate. The black market rate is considerably higher. So part of the reason people are willing to lend bolivares at a negative real rate is that they don't have much choice: the government blocks them from lending at positive real rates in other currencies.

The falling nominal interest rate, I’m guessing, is the temporary “liquidity effect” of a massive injection of new bolivares by the central bank.

Posted by Lawrence H. White at 11:33 AM in Economics  ·  TrackBack (0)

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

Our Bloggers
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Craig Depken
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden

Blogroll

Search

Archives
By Author:
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Edward Bierhanzl
Craig Depken
Ralph R. Frasca
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden

By Month:
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004

Powered by
Movable Type 2.661

Site design by
Sekimori

XML