May 30, 2005
More on Wal-Mart

The Christian Science Monitor ponders "Is Shopping at Wal-Mart Immoral?" There's lots of teeth-gnashing about ethics (based on notions of "distribution" not personal freedom, of course), but it also includes this claim:

"This "race to the bottom" in labor costs also seems to rub off on a surrounding area, according to research from economists Stephan Goetz and Hema Swaminathan at the Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development at Penn State University. While the national poverty rate dropped 2.4% between 1990 and 2000, the rate fell by just 0.2% on average in counties that added a Wal-Mart. One theory: Although Wal-Mart creates jobs, the company also eliminates jobs by putting others out of business.

"We didn't expect Wal-Mart would be able to affect poverty on a countywide basis, but lo and behold it did," says Goetz."

I found the underlying paper here; I haven't yet given it a careful read but a quick skimming already finds a problem with the passage in CSM. The sentence reporting "the national poverty rate dropped 2.4% between 1990 and 2000, the rate fell by just 0.2% on average in counties that added a Wal-Mart" is incorrect. The study finds that the marginal effect of an additional Wal-Mart is 0.2 percentage points not the 2.2 (=2.4-0.2) percentage points impied in the quoted sentence. As Stephan Goetz summarizes on his website:

"The statistical model developed for this study suggests that the counties that added a Wal-Mart store during the decade saw the poverty rate decline by a smaller amount than did counties not adding a store. The net predicted effect of a new store was relatively small, amounting to a 0.2 percentage point higher poverty rate for one new store, 0.4 percentage points for two new stores, and so forth compared to the case where no new store was added. Even so, the effect was statistically significant."

The 0.2 percentage point effect is a more plausible magnitude, but I'm still skeptical that Wal-Mart caused a smaller decrease in poverty between 1990 and 2000. Instead I suspect that it's locations just happen to be correlated with places where poverty declined more slowly in the 1990s. (Note that the study does attempt to control for other factors that might be related to poverty; how well it does so might be another matter.)

If you're not getting enough Wal-Mart here at DOL try AlwaysLowPrices.

UPDATE: Art Carden has a Wal-Mart article on the Mises blog.

ANOTHER UPDATE: I've written a letter to the editor of CSM about the incorrect poverty statistics. Based on the anti-Wal-Mart letters that CSM has already printed (link here, scroll down), I'm not optimistic about having my letter published.

Posted by E. Frank Stephenson at 01:52 PM in Economics  ·  TrackBack (1)

The statesman who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it. -Adam Smith

Our Bloggers
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Craig Depken
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden

Blogroll

Search

Archives
By Author:
Joshua Hall
Robert Lawson
E. Frank Stephenson
Michael C. Munger
Lawrence H. White
Edward Bierhanzl
Craig Depken
Ralph R. Frasca
Tim Shaughnessy
Edward J. Lopez
Brad Smith
Mike DeBow
Wilson Mixon
Art Carden

By Month:
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004

Powered by
Movable Type 2.661

Site design by
Sekimori

XML