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September 21, 2004
Sabato Talk
I've just returned from a delightful talk by UVA politics guru Larry Sabato. See his website for his current thinking on the election. Wisely, Sabato would make no prediction about the winner on Nov. 2; however, his current analysis shows a narrow Bush lead. (He has all states going Democrat or Republican as in 2000 except NH switching to the Democrats and Wisconsin switching to the GOP.) Sabato did offer a prediction about Nader--that his 2004 vote would be about 1/3 of the 3% he garnered in 2000. At face value this suggests that Nader may be a non-factor (unlike 2000 when he siphoned enough votes from Gore to allow Bush to win NH, FL, and the election), but it ignores the fact that Nader's 1% or so will come disproportionately in swing states. Robert Novak has more. Posted by E. Frank Stephenson at 10:47 PM
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